Posted by Don Schlesinger on June 27, 1997 at 08:07:12: In Reply to: Re: Law of Independent Trials: Is It Flawed? posted by Pete Moss on June 27, 1997 at 01:21:44:"Okay Don, I'll grant that 400 rolls with no 7 is evidence that the dice are not fair. Next question: You've seen exactly 400 rolls, and no 7 has come up. What odds would be fair on the proposition that the next roll will be a seven?"
I'll guess somewhere between 1 in 6 and 47 in one octillion!! ;-)
Abstractly, suppose N rolls (only) have been observed with no seven rolled. What are the chances of a seven on the next roll? It's a deep question. Laplace got it wrong, although it was he who first formalized the principle that is the key to it!
If there actually is an answer to this (I should check Epstein), then a) I don't know what it is, and b) I would very much like to learn what it is. Do you know?
Don
- Re: Law of Independent Trials: Is It Flawed? Pete Moss 11:55:26 6/27/97 (2)