Posted by Pete Moss on June 27, 1997 at 01:21:44: In Reply to: Re: Law of Independent Trials: Is It Flawed? posted by Don Schlesinger on June 26, 1997 at 13:21:24:Okay Don, I'll grant that 400 rolls with no 7 is evidence that the dice are not fair. Next question: You've seen exactly 400 rolls, and no 7 has come up. What odds would be fair on the proposition that the next roll will be a seven? Abstractly, suppose N rolls (only) have been observed with no seven rolled. What are the chances of a seven on the next roll? It's a deep question. Laplace got it wrong, although it was he who first formalized the principle that is the key to it!
Pete
- Re: Law of Independent Trials: Is It Flawed? Don Schlesinger 08:07:12 6/27/97 (3)
- Re: Law of Independent Trials: Is It Flawed? Pete Moss 11:55:26 6/27/97 (2)