Re: The Cut-Card Effect

From Stanford Wong's BJ21

Posted by Border Crosser on 2 Feb 1999, 1:08 am, in response to Re: The Cut-Card Effect, posted by MathProf on 31 Jan 1999, 6:35 pm

Thank you for your response.

I agree with you that if the cut-card is placed such that the number of rounds dealt is usually three, then on those occasions when a fourth round is dealt it will be dealt from a 10-poor deck.

But on those occasions, the first three rounds will have been dealt from a set of cards rich in 10s (and other high cards).

In other words, if the only information we have is that three rounds have already been played (by a flat-betting basic-strategy player) but the cut card is not yet out, then we can make two inferences:

(a) the player's EV on the next round (the 4th) will be lower than his overall average EV; and

(b) the player's average EV over the first three rounds was greater than his overall average EV.

It is not obvious to me that, in determining the combined EV of all four rounds of the shoe, the EV-decreasing effect of (a) will outweigh the EV-increasing effect of (b).

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