Re: Optimal Betting Question?

Posted by DvBj on August 25, 1997 at 13:02:13: In Reply to: Re: Optimal Betting Question? posted by Brh on August 25, 1997 at 05:26:08:


Since your response was so good, would you mind if I ask you another question? Of course, all are free to respond.

If you are shuffle tracking you may know for a fact that tens are going to come out during the next deck or so. And you can calculate your EV to be very much in your favor. So to bet pure kelly you bet EV/var * bankroll. On the same round another counter does not know how to track shuffles. So he calculates EV using the normal true count and bets his EV, call it EV2/var * bankroll. Assume both players have the same bankroll.

Who is making the correct Kelly bet? What is the Kelly bet when the advantage can be two different things to two different people. Isn't the EV used to determine the Kelly bet just an estimate anyways. And shouldn't you adjust the bet for how accurate the estimate of EV is?



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