Risk of Ruin Charts

From Stanford Wong's BJ21

Posted by Norm Wattenberger on 28 Aug 1998, 2:10 pm

I've attached a bunch of RoR charts using Don's trip ruin formula. For these charts, I used double deck, 70 card penetration, S17, DAS, 1-6 spread, Hi-Lo.

Goal/Risk/Bankroll

Assumptions:
Hands 50,000
Win rate 2.15/hour
Std. Dev. 27.79/hour.

Bankroll is varied from 350 to 1400 units
Goal is varied from 1,400 to 4,100 units
Probability of reaching the goal is calculated for all variations above.

View1, View2

Win Rate/Risk

Assumptions:
Hands 50,000
Std. Dev. 27.79/hour.

Probability of doubling the bankroll is shown for Win Rates of .25 to 4.9 units/hour.

Bankroll/Risk

Assumptions:
Hands 50,000
Win Rate 2.15/hour
Std. Dev. 27.79/hour.
Goal 1,400 units

Probability of reaching the goal is shown for bankrolls of 0 to 1,400 units.

Hands/Risk

Assumptions:
Win Rate 2.15/hour
Std. Dev. 27.79/hour.
Bankroll 1,000 units
Goal 1,400 units

Probability of reaching the goal is shown for 2,000 to 120,000 hands.

Goal/Hands

Assumptions:
Win Rate 2.15/hour
Std. Dev. 27.79/hour.
Bankroll 1,000 units
Probability of reaching goal 94%

Number of Hands required to reach goal from 1,050 to 1,950 units is shown.

Bankroll/Hands

Assumptions:
Win Rate 2.15/hour
Std. Dev. 27.79/hour.
Goal 1,400 units
Probability of reaching goal 94%

Number of Hands required to reach goal with bankrolls from 700 to 1,400 units is shown.

Regards,
norm