Risk of Ruin Index

Risk of Ruin

One of the major considerations that a Blackjack player must face is the risk of losing an entire bankroll. The following articles are intended to give one a fighting chance by enabling one to determine the risk. If the risks are either too high or too low, then bet sizes and/or bankroll can be adjusted to produce the desired amount of risk.

Last Updated: Article

00/09/03 Detailed CE analysis. by Karel Janecek. Karel discusses the notion of Certainty Equivalent as it applies to risk taking.

99/07/19 Using RA-Fractions to Optimize DI or RoR. by MathProf. MathProf discusses a Risk Adjusted strategy which optimizes one's Desirability Index (DI) or one's Risk of Ruin (ROR).

99/06/29 Why What You Got Ain't What You Expected: Edge, Volatility, and Risk of Ruin in Gambling by Alan Krigman. Alan discusses risk of ruin from two perspectives: a) the earnings criterion and b) the survival criterion.

98/12/30 Expectation with possible ruin by Kim Lee
Concise equation for determining the probability of one's expected terminal bankroll

98/08/27 Risk of Ruin Charts by Norm Wattenberger.
Nice graphical descriptions of events such as the probability of reaching various goals under different conditions, the number of hands required to reach a goal, etc.

98/08/27 Effect of Trip Ruin on Trip EV (A longy but a goody)
by MathProf.

98/05/10 Risk of Ruin Spreadsheet by Dunbar.
This EXCEL spreadsheet uses the short-term risk of ruin formula from Don Schlesinger's BJ Attack (1997), p. 162. If you know your EV and your St.Dev., you can find the bankroll necessary for any specified level of risk. Or, you can input the bankroll to get the associated level of risk. All spreadsheet questions to be emailed directly to h_dunbar@hotmail.com

98/03/28 Effect of proportional betting on trip risk
by Kim Lee with commentary by Don Schlesinger, BillC, DD', Grimy and T-Hopper

97/11/11 Effect of Overhead on Risk Of Ruin
by MathProf.

97/10/02 Beyond Don's Charts?
by truefive and Don Schlesinger

97/08/10 Risk, Ruin, and Trip-Stake Wipeout
Derivation by Bryce Carlson

97/06/19 Two Risk of Ruin Equations
by Don Schlesinger

97/06/29 Goal Oriented Risk of Ruin
Derivation by Richard Reid

Last Updated:	Article
00/09/03	Detailed CE analysis. by Karel Janecek. Karel discusses the notion of Certainty Equivalent as it applies to risk taking.
99/07/19	Using RA-Fractions to Optimize DI or RoR. by MathProf. MathProf discusses a Risk Adjusted strategy which optimizes one's Desirability Index (DI) or one's Risk of Ruin (ROR).
99/06/29	Why What You Got Ain't What You Expected: Edge, Volatility, and Risk of Ruin in Gambling by Alan Krigman. Alan discusses risk of ruin from two perspectives: a) the earnings criterion and b) the survival criterion.
98/12/30	Expectation with possible ruin by Kim Lee Concise equation for determining the probability of one's expected terminal bankroll
98/08/27	Risk of Ruin Charts by Norm Wattenberger. Nice graphical descriptions of events such as the probability of reaching various goals under different conditions, the number of hands required to reach a goal, etc.
98/08/27	Effect of Trip Ruin on Trip EV (A longy but a goody) by MathProf.
98/05/10	Risk of Ruin Spreadsheet by Dunbar. This EXCEL spreadsheet uses the short-term risk of ruin formula from Don Schlesinger's BJ Attack (1997), p. 162. If you know your EV and your St.Dev., you can find the bankroll necessary for any specified level of risk. Or, you can input the bankroll to get the associated level of risk. All spreadsheet questions to be emailed directly to h_dunbar@hotmail.com
98/03/28	Effect of proportional betting on trip risk by Kim Lee with commentary by Don Schlesinger, BillC, DD', Grimy and T-Hopper
97/11/11	Effect of Overhead on Risk Of Ruin by MathProf.
97/10/02	Beyond Don's Charts? by truefive and Don Schlesinger
97/08/10	Risk, Ruin, and Trip-Stake Wipeout Derivation by Bryce Carlson
97/06/19	Two Risk of Ruin Equations by Don Schlesinger
97/06/29	Goal Oriented Risk of Ruin Derivation by Richard Reid